November 3rd Is Bigger Than Trump: The Next Two Years Are on the Ballot

By George P. Brooks
Opinion / Commentary | National

I am MAGA, I am conservative, and I support President Trump, but Republicans need to understand something before November 3rd gets here: the midterms are not another Trump rally, and they damn sure aren’t a participation trophy for Republicans. Control of Congress is on the ballot, and whoever controls the House and Senate will possess enormous power over what the final two years of Trump’s presidency actually look like.

What Is Actually at Stake

The math alone should wake people up. All 435 House seats are up for election, Republicans are defending a narrow majority, and Democrats need a net gain of only three seats compared with the 2024 election results to reach 218 seats and take control of the House. In the Senate, Democrats and the independents who caucus with them need a net gain of four seats to reach a 51-seat majority, with closely watched races stretching across states including Maine, Ohio, North Carolina, Alaska, Michigan and Texas.

That means this isn’t some abstract argument about whether somebody likes Trump’s personality, his tweets, his speeches or the latest outrage bouncing around social media. Congressional control determines who leads the legislative agenda, who controls committees, who controls hearings and investigations, who decides which bills reach the floor and, critically in the Senate, who holds the majority voting power over whether presidential nominees and future federal judges are confirmed.

That is what is actually at stake.

And this is exactly why I keep saying MAGA cannot spend the next several weeks talking exclusively to people who already agree with us. We know the base, we know the slogans and we know how to fill a room with people wearing red hats, but none of that automatically produces a congressional majority.

Republicans need to explain what the next two years would actually mean.

If Republicans retain Congress, voters should know specifically what Republicans intend to do with that power on affordability, immigration, energy, crime, taxes, government spending, the courts and federal bureaucracy. If Democrats take one or both chambers, voters should likewise understand exactly what powers change hands and what that could mean for Trump’s legislative agenda, congressional investigations and Senate confirmations.

Affordability Cannot Be Ignored

That’s the conversation worth having because November 3rd isn’t about awarding somebody a gold star for ideological purity. Americans are looking at grocery receipts, electric bills, gasoline prices, rent, mortgages and insurance premiums. A Reuters/Ipsos poll reported September 21 identified the cost of living as the top issue Americans said would determine how they vote in November.

That should be tattooed across the forehead of every Republican strategist in Washington.

I’m not interested in Republicans spending the final stretch telling America everything is wonderful when Americans can look at their bank accounts and decide that for themselves. Conservatism should be grounded in reality, and reality means acknowledging people’s problems before explaining how conservative policy addresses them.

This is especially important when talking to Americans who have never considered themselves Republicans.

Don’t demand some ideological conversion ceremony from them. Don’t tell them they have to love Donald Trump, apologize for every Democratic vote they’ve ever cast and purchase a MAGA hat before they’re allowed into the conversation.

Talk about the country.

Talk about what Congress actually does.

Talk about what divided government would mean.

Talk about what unified government would mean.

Talk about what has happened so far in Trump’s second term, what worked, what didn’t and what Republicans intend to do differently over the next two years.

Then allow grown adults to make their own decision.

Because Republicans have a problem if our entire midterm argument becomes “Vote Republican because Trump.” Trump isn’t running for Congress in 435 House districts, and he isn’t running in the Senate races that will determine who controls confirmations.

Candidates have to make their own cases.

And Republicans need to understand the stakes themselves before expecting anybody else to understand them.

Winning Power Comes With Responsibility

Lose the House and committee gavels change hands, along with control over committee subpoenas, investigative priorities and the legislative calendar. Lose the Senate and the political environment surrounding Trump’s nominees and any potential Supreme Court or federal judicial vacancies changes dramatically.

Lose both and the final two years of Trump’s presidency become a fundamentally different political environment.

Keep both and Republicans retain congressional power, but then comes the part Washington sometimes forgets: they actually have to govern with it.

That is where my frustration comes in.

I don’t want Republicans winning elections merely to spend another two years explaining why they couldn’t accomplish anything. If voters give you power, use the damn power responsibly, constitutionally and effectively.

Secure the border.

Address affordability.

Get serious about energy.

Control spending.

Protect constitutional rights.

Deal with crime where federal authority legitimately applies.

Conduct legitimate oversight without turning Congress into daytime television.

And explain to Americans what you’re doing without requiring them to spend six hours a day following political social media to understand it.

The midterms should be treated like what they actually are: a decision about who possesses federal legislative power for the remainder of Trump’s term.

There are Americans who voted for Trump who may not automatically vote Republican in November. There are independents who don’t particularly like either party, and there are Americans who have historically voted Democrat but may agree with conservatives on immigration, crime, parental authority, taxes, free speech or government spending.

Talk to all of them.

Not by watering down conservatism, but by explaining it better.

My argument isn’t that MAGA needs to become less conservative to win outside the MAGA base. My argument is almost the opposite: if conservative principles are worth anything, we should be capable of explaining why they matter to somebody who doesn’t already agree with us.

Make the Case. Explain the Stakes.

November 3rd is coming quickly, and Republicans do not have the luxury of assuming enthusiasm inside our own political circle represents the entire electorate. The September Reuters/Ipsos findings point to a difficult environment for Republicans, particularly around affordability, and pretending those numbers don’t exist won’t change them.

Use them as a warning.

Make the case.

Show the record.

Explain the stakes.

Then let Americans decide.

Because when the votes are counted and the results are settled, the country will know who will control the House and who will control the Senate when the new Congress convenes in January. Those results will determine much of what Washington can, or cannot, do for the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency.

This midterm isn’t a popularity contest, a loyalty oath or another opportunity to see who can scream MAGA the loudest. It is a decision about who holds congressional power, who controls the committees, who confirms judges and nominees, who leads the legislative agenda and whether the second half of Trump’s term operates with a Republican Congress or against an opposition Congress.

That’s what’s at stake.

George P. Brooks

Opinion / Commentary: The views expressed are those of the author.